Howard Marks: AI 'Terrifying' for Jobs—Beyond Paychecks

The Investor View Nobody's Discussing

We've heard from CEOs about AI replacing jobs. Now we're hearing from the people who fund those CEOs.

Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management and one of the most respected investors in the world, published a memo this week with a stark warning: AI's impact on employment is "terrifying."

Not concerning. Not challenging. Terrifying.

What makes Marks' perspective different? He's not talking about efficiency gains or workforce transformation. He's talking about something CEOs won't say out loud: what happens to people when work disappears.

The Core Warning

In his December 9, 2025 memo, Marks laid out his concerns:

"I find the resulting outlook for employment terrifying. I am enormously concerned about what will happen to the people whose jobs AI renders unnecessary, or who can't find jobs because of it."

Marks views "AI primarily as an incredible labor-saving device." That's investor-speak for: companies will need far fewer people.

But here's where he diverges from the standard tech optimism narrative.

Beyond the Paycheck Problem

Most AI-jobs discussions focus on income replacement. Lose your job? Get a new one. Can't find work? Universal Basic Income.

Marks argues this misses the point entirely:

"A job gives them a reason to get up in the morning, imparts structure to their day, gives them a productive role in society and self-respect."

Even if governments could fund UBI (a big if), it wouldn't address what people actually lose when work disappears:

Purpose - The reason to show up
Structure - The shape of daily life
Identity - Who you are to yourself and others
Self-worth - The feeling of contribution

This isn't just philosophical musing. It's a prediction about social stability.

The Political Powder Keg

Marks connects the dots that economic analysts often avoid:

"I'm concerned that a small number of highly educated multi-billionaires living on the coasts will be viewed as having created technology that puts millions out of work."

His conclusion?

"This promises even more social and political division than we have now, making the world ripe for populist demagoguery."

Translation: When millions feel displaced by technology created by a visible few, the political consequences won't be pretty.

The Investment Arms Race

Marks also addressed why companies are spending unprecedented amounts on AI despite the risks. It's a "winner-take-all arms race."

For Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle: "it's reasonable to think one of the reasons they're spending vast sums is to make it hard for lesser firms to keep up."

Some are taking on "aggressive" amounts of debt to stay competitive.

In the same memo, Marks officially labeled the AI boom a "bubble"—but with a crucial caveat: avoiding the sector completely could be as dangerous as betting everything on it.

Why This Matters Now

Different Voice, Same Conclusion

We've covered CEO warnings about AI jobs. Ford's Jim Farley saying half of white-collar jobs will be replaced. Salesforce cutting 44% of support staff. Klarna reducing workforce by 40%.

Marks adds the investor perspective: the people funding these companies see the same future and are concerned about more than quarterly earnings.

The Purpose Question

Most career advice focuses on skills, adaptability, and finding new roles. Marks is raising a different question: even if the economy creates new jobs, what happens to human purpose when traditional work structures dissolve?

This aligns with our core insight: people don't pay for tasks, they pay for trust, judgment, and responsibility. The jobs that survive AI will be the ones where human purpose is the product, not just a byproduct.

What This Means for You

1. The "Get Another Job" Path Is Narrowing

Marks isn't predicting gradual change. He's describing structural transformation. The assumption that displaced workers will simply find other work is looking increasingly optimistic.

2. Purpose-Driven Work Is the Hedge

If Marks is right that purpose matters more than paycheck, the careers most resistant to AI disruption might be the ones where human connection and responsibility are central—not peripheral.

3. Watch the Investor Class

When someone who manages billions expresses concern about social stability, it's worth noting. Investors have access to information and trends that aren't public yet.

The Bottom Line

Howard Marks didn't write this memo to help workers. He wrote it to explain market risks to investors. That makes his warnings about AI employment more credible, not less.

The summary:

AI is an "incredible labor-saving device" (companies will need fewer people)
The employment outlook is "terrifying"
UBI can't replace purpose, structure, and self-worth
Social and political division will intensify
This is a multi-decade transformation, not a transition

Your move: If you're in a role where your primary value is task completion, start thinking about what you'd do if that task disappeared. Not the income replacement—the purpose replacement.

Method & Sources

Research conducted: December 10, 2025

Primary sources:

Oaktree Capital Management memo "Is It a Bubble?" (December 9, 2025)
Bloomberg coverage of Howard Marks' AI employment concerns

Key quotes:

"I find the resulting outlook for employment terrifying"
"AI primarily as an incredible labor-saving device"
"A job gives them a reason to get up in the morning, imparts structure to their day"
"ripe for populist demagoguery"

Last updated: December 10, 2025