AI Job Market Recap: November 2025 — The Month Everything Changed

This Month in Numbers

Stat	Source
48,000	US jobs cut citing AI in 2025 (YTD)
11.7%	US workforce already replaceable by AI (MIT)
25%	Youth unemployment Senator Warner warns could hit
9.3%	Current unemployment among college grads 20-24
6,000	Jobs HP is cutting for AI transformation
2x	Increase in fear of AI job displacement YoY (KPMG)
$1 billion	Annual savings HP expects from AI by 2028

November 2025 might be remembered as the month AI job displacement stopped being theoretical. The numbers got real, the politicians got vocal, and the layoffs explicitly cited AI as the reason.

Here's everything that happened—and what it means.

The Headlines

1. MIT Study: 11.7% of Jobs Already Replaceable

What happened: MIT researchers released the largest study to date on AI workforce impact, analyzing 150 million US workers against 13,000+ AI tools using a new "Iceberg Index" methodology.

The finding: 11.7% of the US workforce—roughly 18 million workers—are doing jobs that current AI could already perform.

Why it matters: This isn't speculation about future capabilities. It's an assessment of what AI can do today. The study specifically highlighted entry-level positions as the first casualties.

Key quote: "AI systems now generate more than a billion lines of code each day, prompting companies to restructure hiring pipelines and reduce demand for entry-level programmers."

→ Full analysis: MIT Study Confirms 11.7% of Jobs Replaceable

2. Senator Warner: 25% Youth Unemployment Warning

What happened: Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) warned in multiple media appearances that AI could push unemployment among recent college graduates to 25% within 2-3 years.

The data: Youth unemployment (ages 20-24 with degrees) currently sits at 9.3%, already up from 7.4% two years ago.

His proposal: A major retraining program funded 70-80% by tech companies whose products are causing the displacement.

The political reality: Warner admitted he's "skeptical Congress will pass any significant AI safety legislation."

Key quote: "Entry level jobs may very quickly disappear... that could cause a level of social disruption that's unprecedented."

→ Full analysis: Senator Warner's 25% Warning

3. HP Cuts 6,000 Jobs for AI

What happened: HP announced it will cut 4,000-6,000 jobs globally—approximately 10% of its workforce—as part of an AI-driven restructuring.

The business case: HP expects $1 billion in annual savings by fiscal year 2028 through AI adoption.

The timeline: Cuts to be completed by end of fiscal 2028.

Why it matters: This is one of the clearest cases of a major company explicitly connecting layoffs to AI strategy. Not "efficiency improvements"—specifically AI adoption.

4. Microsoft Ireland Cuts 250

What happened: Microsoft's Irish operations cut 250 positions since last summer, part of broader tech sector adjustments.

The context: This follows Microsoft's aggressive AI investment and integration across its product lines. While not explicitly blamed on AI, the cuts come as the company redirects resources toward AI development.

5. Fed Beige Book: "Low-Hire, Low-Fire"

What happened: The Federal Reserve's November Beige Book documented a new labor market pattern: companies aren't doing mass layoffs but are implementing hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring, and natural attrition.

What this means: The jobs aren't being cut—they're just not appearing. This stealth displacement is harder to track but equally impactful for job seekers.

The AI connection: The Beige Book specifically noted that "AI has replaced entry-level positions or increased worker productivity enough to eliminate the need for new hiring."

Consumer sentiment: 27.6% of respondents said jobs were "plentiful"—down from 28.6% the previous month.

6. UK Report: 3 Million Jobs at Risk by 2035

What happened: A UK study projected that 3 million jobs could be displaced by AI within the next 10 years.

The sectors: The report identified roles in finance, administration, and customer service as most exposed.

The timeline: Unlike the MIT study (which measures current capability), this looks at a 10-year horizon as AI capabilities expand.

7. KPMG: Fear of AI Displacement Nearly Doubles

What happened: KPMG research found that worker fear of AI-driven job displacement nearly doubled compared to the previous year.

What it signals: The anxiety isn't irrational. Workers are reading the same news, seeing the same layoffs, and experiencing the same hiring freezes documented elsewhere.

The Pattern: What Connects These Stories

Three themes emerged this month:

1. Entry-Level Is Ground Zero

Every major data point this month pointed to the same place: entry-level and junior roles are being hit first. MIT's study, Warner's warning, the Fed's Beige Book—all highlight that the traditional entry point to careers is closing.

This isn't random. AI can replace routine tasks faster than it can replace judgment developed over years. Junior roles exist partly to build that judgment—but AI doesn't need training time.

2. It's Happening Now, Not "Someday"

The MIT study specifically measured current capabilities, not theoretical future potential. HP's cuts have a timeline. The youth unemployment numbers are from this year's data.

The framing has shifted from "AI might eventually..." to "AI is currently..."

3. The Response Is Lagging

Warner's admission that Congress probably won't act meaningfully reflects a broader pattern: institutions are moving slower than technology. Companies are adapting faster than policy. Workers are caught in between.

By Profession: What This Means for You

Software Engineers

This month's signal: Entry-level developer hiring is explicitly being "restructured" according to MIT. Senior roles remain more stable, but the pipeline of new developers is constricting.

Action: If you're junior, focus on differentiation (domain expertise, human-facing skills). If you're senior, your value is in judgment and system design that AI still can't match—lean into that.

→ Software Engineer Risk Assessment

Financial Services

This month's signal: MIT specifically identified finance as exposed for "document-processing and routine analysis work."

Action: Routine analysis is becoming commodity. The value is in client relationships, regulatory judgment, and novel problem-solving.

→ Financial Analyst Risk Assessment

Administrative & Customer Service

This month's signal: The UK study flagged these as high-risk sectors over the 10-year horizon. HP's cuts likely include administrative functions.

Action: Consider how to add value that automation can't easily replicate—complex problem resolution, emotional intelligence, relationship management.

Recent Graduates

This month's signal: You're in the 9.3% unemployment cohort that Warner says could hit 25%. Entry-level hiring freezes are documented in the Fed data.

Action: Extend your runway, build demonstrable skills, network aggressively, consider less obvious entry points. The traditional path is broken—adapt accordingly.

What We're Watching

December 2025 - January 2026

Holiday hiring data: Will seasonal retail hiring offset tech sector freezes?
Q4 earnings calls: Watch for AI investment announcements paired with headcount guidance
Fed policy signals: Rate decisions affect tech investment and hiring budgets
More company announcements: HP's cuts may signal a wave of explicit AI-related restructuring

Regulatory Developments

Warner-Hawley Bill: The bipartisan bill requiring AI job impact reporting—will it advance?
State-level action: If federal action stalls, watch California and New York for potential state regulation
EU AI Act implementation: How European rules affect US companies with global workforces

Data Releases

December jobs report: Watch the youth unemployment and tech sector numbers specifically
Q4 layoff tracking: Challenger, Gray & Christmas data on AI-cited terminations
Updated MIT data: Will other institutions replicate or challenge the 11.7% finding?

The Bottom Line

November 2025 wasn't just another month of AI hype. It was the month the data got specific:

11.7% replaceable today (not someday)
25% youth unemployment warning (not from a blogger—from a Senator)
6,000 explicit AI cuts at one company (not vague "restructuring")
Fear doubled in one year (workers see what's happening)

The message is consistent across all these data points: AI displacement is real, it's hitting entry-level first, and the response from institutions is lagging behind the pace of change.

The smart response isn't panic—it's positioning. Know where the pressure is coming from. Build skills that AI can't easily replicate. Don't wait for Congress.

Sources

CBS News: MIT AI Study (November 26, 2025)
Fortune: Senator Warner AI Warning (November 20, 2025)
The Journal: HP Job Cuts (November 25, 2025)
Fortune: Fed Beige Book Labor Market (November 27, 2025)
CFO Dive: KPMG AI Fear Survey (November 25, 2025)

This is the first edition of our monthly AI Job Market Recap. We'll publish this summary at the end of each month to help you track the trends that matter for your career.

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